Once again this list is a resource to gauge trade value for the majority of superstars in the NHL. The idea behind it is number 50 was a player I would not trade for number 49, number 49 was a player I would not trade for 48 all the way to the number one player, a player who I would not trade straight up for any other individual.I also take the approach of a team in the middle of the pack, a team neither contending or in full rebuild mode. A team that may be a Jarome Iginla away from jumping into the upper echelon and may mortgage a future star like Stamkos for him, but also a team that may decide a deal like that would be counter productive and remain patient and hope Stamkos emerges relatively quickly.
This was my original idea behind the monthly ranking. Earlier in the season I got away from this and created a list that can be routinely found anywhere else. I am not giving you some statistical based top 350 keeper list that requires no more effort than punching in numbers and allowing excel to calculate the data. I am individually going through each of these players and assessing whether or not I would realistically deal them for their immediate predecessor on the list.
I believe rotisserie is the best way to run a fantasy pool so my thought process is based upon roto categories, but because of the abundance of different categories that differ from pool to pool I am mainly ranking their overall fantasy potential. Do not expect a guy who may score highly in standard yahoo leagues to automatically appear on this list because they dominate in Shots on Goal and PIMs. if your league uses neither category that player may get drafted or traded to you based on poor information. I am looking for players with high end offensive potential and franchise goaltenders.
This list is my perspective, I have been wrong on players before. Agree or disagree, but I approach fantasy hockey like I would poker. I analyze my position and make my decision. Once it has been made I do not look back, I know with my lack of a crystal ball that some decisions will lose, but at the end of the day I know the majority of my decisions will not. When all is said and done and I list all my decisions, the good will far outweigh the bad, and I can live with that.
On to the list for January
50. Derick Brassard - C - CBJ
Brassard was on his way up this chart one month ago, but with his latest injury I am beginnig to worry about his durability and future place on the Marian Havorik All-Stars
49. Patrick Marleau - C - SJS
Marleau+Wilson equals no list, Marleau - Wilson equals number 49. Marleau is an elite level player who has been given a second life.
48. Devin Setoguchi - RW - SJS
When Joe Thornton is injured for 15 games and Setoguchi continues to produce, then I will believe. Until then he is Rob Brown to me and will most likely remain cemented at the base of this list.
47. Anze Kopitar - C - LAK
I find myself being impatient with the young King, he has all the tools, but my impatience is getting the better of me. If I owned him, it would be a good time to come knocking because I may make a shortsighted decision. Fortunately for me, I don't own him, so it's not my problem.
46. David Krejci - C- BOS
Three years ago a Bruin fan in our pool drafted Krejci and everybody had no idea who he was. Not anymore, huge breakout season for the Czech center who is one of the main reasons behind the Bruins monster first half.
45. Olli Jokinen - C - PHX
No excuses this season, tons of young firepower in Phoenix, where have you gone Olli Jokinen from 2006?
44. Alexander Semin - C - WAS
One more injury away from joining Marian Gaborik and a place far from this list.
43. Steve Mason - G - CBJ
Mason is putting up a season for the ages, enough to debut, but not enough for me to push him to far up the chart. The ghosts of Steve Penney, Jim Carey and Patrick Lalime still haunt me. Especially you LALIME!!
42. Sergei Gonchar - D - PIT
I think the absence of Gonchar is understated in the Pens recent slide into mediocrity. When you cannot transition from your own zone to players like Malkin and Crosby you hamper their ability to create at full speed. With all due respect to Letang, Whitney and Goligoski, they are not Gonchar who has been one of the best offensive defensemen of the last 15 years.
41. Evgeni Nabokov - G - SJS
And I'm freeeeee, freeeee fallllin. Any questions, refer to here.
40. Marc Andre Fleury - G - PIT
When the majority of your value is attached to your team's future potential, and that team is falling faster than Nicole Kidman's face, your ranking will be affected.
39. Mikko Koivu - C - MIN
Koivu started the season with 9 points in three games, and has registered 31 in his last 39 games, good, but not great enough to trade him for those above him on this list.
38. Brian Campbell - D - CHI
You know you have exceeded expectations when you are on pace for 61 pts and are considered a disappointment by some.
37. Andrei Markov - D - MTL
You have to wonder what type of season he would be having if the Canadiens powerplay was clicking like the previous two seasons. Probably would be a lot higher on this list.
36. Steven Stamkos - C - TB
Oh the siren song of youth. He has not earned this by his play in the NHL, but if I was a middle of the pack team and somebody offered me all the players above him on this list, I would pull the trigger in an instant.
35. Paul Stastny - C - COL
I am interested to see how Stastny reacts when he returns. It is never easy replacing a legend in Colorado. Ask Jose Theodore and Jake Plummer how it went.
34. Niklas Backstrom - C - WAS
I don't think this kid needs Ovechkin to succeed in the future, but his production is probably advanced because of him. I don't think that his and Ovechkin's slow start were a coincidence.
33. Nicklas Backstrom - G - MIN
Until his contract situation is settled in Minnesota I cannot really recommend him long term. A long term contract with the Leafs would totally change his future outlook and production.
32. Eric Staal - C - CAR
A 100 pt season at 21 years old is not supposed to be an albatross around your neck. But the question exists, was that a one year abberation? Is Staal just an 80 pt player?
31. Rick Nash - LW - CBJ
Almost there Rick, keep pushing, you can do it. I have been waiting for Nash to hit 82 points for 2 years now, with the young talent finally rising to the surface I think this is the year.
30. Phil Kessel - LW - BOS
I have never seen a player respond to a benching the way Kessel did in the first round last season. He has scored 27 goals in 45 games since the embarrasment of last post season and is finally living up to the hype of the US Sidney Crosby.
29. Simon Gagne - LW - PHI
Gagne has NEVER played a full season, with his concussion history added to that I will remain leary for now. If I owned him I would trade him, outside of his 47 goal year riding shotgun with Forsberg he has never produced at this level.
28. Pavel Datsyuk - C - DET
It must be easy for Datsyuk to see the passing lanes with his giant eyes. If he was an actor he would be Marty Feldman. Why couldn't his parents have given him the Russian name Igor? Screw it, from now on he is Eyegor Datsyuk.
27. Jonathan Toews - C - CHI
Johnny T!! He is one of the players who I WOULD overpay for, the other one is Carey Price. What can I say, there is nothing wrong with a hetero man crush, barring it is a professional athlete not named Mike Piazza, and yes members of the WNBA count as man crushes.
26. Dan Boyle - D - Sharks
I am still amazed that the Lightning dealt him for two cents on the dollar. So why is everybody convinced that Lecavalier will fetch 4 players + 2-3 picks?
25. Henrik Zetterberg - LW - DET
Zetterberg is good, but would any of you deal him for Savard, Carter, Parise, Kane, Weber, Richards, Spezza, Vanek etc? And if you would, how tortorous of a decision would it be?
24. Marc Savard - C - BOS
Nobody sees the passing lanes like Savard, but this is likely as good as he will ever get, he is a victim of the maturation of the 2003 Draft.
23. Corey Perry - RW - ANA
Future is bright for the burgeoning power forward, let's see if Bobby Ryan nipping at his heels can light a fire under his ass in the second half.
22. Jeff Carter - C - PHI
Oops, almost wrote C - TOR. Why do Leaf fans hate Sundin and McCabe and not Kaberle? Sundin is rumoured to have cost the Leafs Higgins, McCabe cost them nothing and Kaberle is rumoured to have cost them Carter. I know I would be pissed off if I bled Blue, Blanc et Lose.
21. Zach Parise - LW - NJD
How would this guy produce if he had been drafted by the Flyers and not the Devils? It is not often that a Devils forward produces more than 90 points.
20. Patrick Kane - RW - CHI
I think Stamkos would sell his soul for Patrick Kane's rookie production right about now. I thought Kane would struggle because of lack of physical strength last year, sorry, there was a typo on my Biff Tannen Almanac.
19. Thomas Vanek - LW - BUF
Vanek is a goal scoring machine, but he needs to step up other aspects of his game to push forward.
18. Shea Weber - D - NAS
Although his production has slowed Weber has flashed enough of his future brilliance to make him close to untradeable. I am giddy at the prospect of Phaneuf and Weber anchoring Canada's defense in 2010. As much as Russia was full credit for their World Championship victory, Canada will not be starting Cam Ward and Pascal Leclaire in goal, add in Crosby, Iginla, Lecavalier, Richards and Carter, with Boyle, Weber, Pronger and Phaneuf on the back end and I have a feeling it may be a little different two years from now.
17. Mike Richards - C - PHI
Richards has a dirty streak in him, but in a Doug Gilmour way. You hate to play him, but you would take 10 of him for your own team. Dogged and determined, this kid will be captain of the National Team one day.
16. Jason Spezza - C - OTT
I cannot stand the way he plays the game, luckily in fantasy that doesn't matter. He is really undervalued right now and at 25 years old is far from finished. Don't get stuck in the present, he has the track record of a fantasy stud and when he finishes sulking will return to his productive ways.
15. Vincent Lecavalier - C - TB
14. Marian Hossa - RW - DET
Hossa is one of the most complete fantasy players out there. But I always feel like he is not giving me everything. I think it stems from all of his playoff disppearances with the Sens. This is probably to low, but I think he is underappreciated by every fantasy owner.
13. Dion Phaneuf - D - CGY
Phaneuf is having an off year with a drastic reduction in goal production as well as PIMs, but he is a victim of great years by Mike Green, Ryan Getzlaf and Carey Price. Still a player you can build around, and most likely a player who will rebound in the second half.
12. Mike Green - D - WAS
Green is averaging a point per game, those are Gonchar, Lidstrom numbers and invaluable on the back end. Owning Green in a points league is like having an extra defenseman.
11. Ryan Getzlaf - C - ANA
Getzlaf started the season at number 33. His explosive start has carried Corey Perry and Bobby Ryan to fantasy prominence and has pushed him to the verge of the top 10.
10. Carey Price - G - MTL
These stats at this age on a team that looks to be a contender for the forseable future? With the talent in the Canadiens pipeline, he is going to remain here for a long time. I see a Roberto Luongo type future.
9. Henrik Lundqvist - G - NYR
The King is having an off year, but 40 games is not enough to write off three straight Vezina nominations. For now he holds off Carey Price.
8. Jarome Iginla - RW - CGY
Still the premier RW in hockey, but if somebody called and offered me Ryan Getzlaf it wouldn't be an easy decision, one month from now it may even show in these rankings.
7. Dany Heatley - LW - OTT
It will take more than a poor 40 games to alter my perception of a 4 times 40+ goal, 2 time 100 point scorer. Ottawa is a mess, but Heatley is still a stud.
6. Joe Thornton - C - SJS
The underappreciated superstar. Thornton is a monster in point leagues and his biggest drawback in roto pools are a lack of PIMs and shots on goal.
5. Ilya Kovalchuk - LW - ATL
Don't be concerned about Kovalchuk's performance. He is pouting. But he is the most dynamic player in the NHL not named Alexander Ovechkin. Those two are the only two players in the NHL who scare the shite out of me in a tie game late in the third. When he finally gets dealt to a contender, look out.
4. Roberto Loungo - G - VAN
Still the top fantasy goaltender in the game by a mile. Now if he can only work a personal groin masseuse expense into his contract.
Ah, the top 3, a contentious subject as everybody has their opinion on who the best player in fantasy is. Not only does it get confused with who the best player in hockey is, but what I have discovered through this blog is that fantasy owners have very short memories. So short in fact that the majority of you cannot remember who is at number 6 without scrolling up. With short memories owners tend to forget about last season which can lead to big mistakes.
I have received emails in response to my list telling me how wrong I am to list Crosby at the top because as it is right now, the flavour of the day is Evgeni Malkin. Malkin is the best, Ovechkin is second and Crosby 3rd. A lot of this perception is based on what the stat sheet indicates on January 17th. But a lot of it has to do with the hype that Crosby has failed to live up to. But if you want to find a more productive 18-20 year old you have to look back to Wayne Gretzky. When statistics are adjusted to deal with the different eras Crosby favourably compares to Mario Lemieux, and outdistances Malkin and Ovechkin at those ages. Are these things that should be outright ignored because they did not happen last week?
In order to get the proper perspective on Crosby's numbers in comparison to Lemieux and Gretzky, I adjusted the numbers to reflect if they played in an NHL where 252 goals were scored per team not 300+. With this adjustment Gretzky's rookie total dropped from 137 to 121 and Lemieux's from 102 to 81.
What would Crosby's rookie totals look like if goalie's looked like this...
instead of this.....
Once again I adjusted Lemieux and Gretzky's numbers to compare to Crosby as a 19 year old.
As a second year pro he outdistanced Lemieux significantly and approached Gretzky's rarified air which resulted in the NHL MVP award. So before the age of 20 Crosby has registered two seasons that compared favourably with two of the greatest scorers of all-time. While Crosby was registering these numbers Ovechkin and Malkin had not even attempted an NHL shift. These numbers are conveniently shoved under the rug one and a half seasons later?
A legitimate comparison is not possible until the age of 20 where Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin all registered their stats in the National Hockey League.
At this point Gretzky's production is literally off the chart, but Crosby still compares favourably to Lemieux and before his injury outdistances Malkin and Ovechkin's debut seasons. There are adjustment factors that have to be taken into account with Ovechkin and Malkin, but the point remains that the proper comparable is not Crosby today, but Crosby to Ovechkin in 2006 and Malkin in 2007. It is easy to forget this and maintain a what have you done for me lately attitude, but you would be overlooking an important factor in Crosby's progress.
At 21 Gretzky and Lemieux begin to pull away, but Crosby's production is on par with Ovechkin's MVP season and Malkin's breakout from last year. All this while everybody wonders what's wrong with Sidney. With all the hype surrounding the Crosby Lottery and Gretzky's assertion that Crosby could break his records it is easily forgotten that Crosby while in his 4th year is still only 21 years old. So while most people just assume that Malkin and Ovechkin are the superior players, try to keep things in perspective and realize that Crosby still has a year to two years to progress before he is on equal footing with Malkin and Ovechkin. In the next two years he will physically mature, he will gain valuable experience in reading the play and in time the game will slow down for him.
So for January my top 3 remains the same.
3. Evgeni Malkin - C - PIT
2. Alexander Ovechkin - LW - WAS
1. Sidney Crosby - C - PIT
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