A slight change in the Keeper list for December. This list started off before the season as a resource to gauge trade value for the majority of superstars in the NHL. The idea behind it was number 50 was a player I would not trade for number 49, number 49 was a player I would not trade for 48 all the way to the number one player, a player who I would not trade straight up for any other individual.I also tried to take the approach of a team in the middle of the pack, a team neither contending or in full rebuild mode. A team that may be a Jarome Iginla away from jumping into the upper echelon and may mortgage a future star like Stamkos for him, but also a team that may decide a deal like that would be counter productive and remain patient and hope Stamkos emerges relatively quickly.
This was my original idea behind the monthly ranking. In November I got away from this and created a list that can be routinely found anywhere else. I am not giving you some statistical based top 350 keeper list that requires no more effort than punching in numbers and allowing excel to calculate the data. I am individually going through each of these players and assessing whether or not I would realistically deal them for their immediate predecessor on the list.
I believe rotisserie is the best way to run a fantasy pool so my thought process is based upon roto categories, but because of the abundance of different categories that differ from pool to pool I am mainly ranking their overall fantasy potential. Do not expect a guy who may score highly in standard yahoo leagues to automatically appear on this list because they dominate in Shots on Goal and PIMs. if your league uses neither category that player may get drafted or traded to you based on poor information. I am looking for players with high end offensive potential and franchise goaltenders.
This list is my perspective, I have been wrong on players before. Agree or disagree, but I approach fantasy hockey like I would poker. I analyze my position and make my decision. Once it has been made I do not look back, I know with my lack of a crystal ball that some decisions will lose, but at the end of the day I know the majority of my decisions will not. When all is said and done and I list all my decisions, the good will far outweigh the bad, and I can live with that.
On to the revamped list for December
50. Nicklas Lidstrom - D – DET
Nobody has fallen harder down this list than Nicklas Lidstrom. I tried to offer the proper amount of respect to the best defenceman of this generation, but I would have no use for a 39 year old defenseman if I was in 10th place in a 20 team league. What is the point of a 70 pt defenseman on a middle of the pack team? To move up to 4th? Do you give up Phil Kessel for a shot at 4th place? I love Lidstrom and would jump all over an opportunity to acquire him if I was a contender, but he hangs on to 50th in this list based on his history, 39 year olds not named Barry Bonds generally are already well into their descent.
49. Jason Pominville – C – BUF
The city of Pominville population Rick Jeaneret are probably not happy with this ranking, but I never thought Pominville would surpass his 68 pt season in 2007 and was shocked with last seasons production. I need convincing and remain open minded if Pominville can match last seasons production.
48. Niklas Backstrom – G – MIN
Backstrom deserves to be on this list and I made sure to assure his debut in December. I know he has talent, I watched him steal a game against the Canadiens at the Phone Booth in October, but playing under Jacques Lemaire tends to exagerrate your statistics and until he has locked down a contract with the Wild going forward and does not cash out at 7M per season to solve the goaltending woes of the Toronto Maple Leafs he will stay put in the high 40s.
47. Mikko Koivu – C – MIN
The younger Koivu enjoyed a monster start to the 2009 season and tailed off. He has just begun to produce again and is a definite contender for breakout player of the year. I am still struggling trying to figure out his ceiling, playing in the Wild’s stifling system just makes it more difficult. That little bit of doubt is enough that I would be hesitant to pull the trigger on those rated ahead of him.
46. Phil Kessel – RW – BOS
The US Sidney Crosby struggled to find his way in the NHL, but in season three he has finally begun to live up to his World Junior hype. A 12 game scoring streak and 19 goals in his last 29 games have him on a 50+ goal pace. A gifted playmaker and scorer, Kessel earned his place on this list, when the 20 year old shows me more consistency he will rocket up this chart.
45. Derrick Brassard – C – CBJ
Brassard leap frogs the player who was drafted directly ahead of him in the 2006 draft. Both have futures that could link them with Superstars in Marc Savard and Rick Nash. They both took different paths to the NHL and Brassard gets the one position nod because I was not exposed to his warts for two seasons before his debut. I have also been impressed with his production in relation to his ice time. This kid is going to be good.
44. Devin Setoguchi – RW- SJS
Is Setoguchi Jonathon Cheechoo 2.0? Glen Murray from 2003? Is he the next great forward? Or is he going to be Jonathon Cheechoo 2009 in 3 years? To many question marks for me. His 27 points earned him this ranking, nothing more.
43. Alexander Semin – LW – WAS
My first instinct on Semin was to rank him much higher, but with his application in the mail for the Marian Havorik All-Stars I don’t think I would deal for him without reservation. Marian Gaborik is not on this list, I know the guy is one of the most talented individuals in the league, but I know that for every 40+ goal season he has I will have to deal with a 18 goal 35 GP season. That has left Semin stains in my mind.
42. Sergei Gonchar – D – PIT
By the time Sergei Gonchar returns this season he will be 35 years old. But I let Sergei Zubov walk from the Northstars in 2004 assuming at 34 his days as an elite QB were on the decline and he responded with 71 pts at 36. With Lidstrom dominating into his late 30s and Chris Chelios’ wink wink new training program allowing him to play into his late 40s, I will not give up on a slick puck moving dman like Gonchar to early again.
41. Anze Kopitar – C – LAK
I am a big fan of Kopitar, I wanted the Habs to draft him in 2005 and boy was I lucky they were not listening to me. The Habs would not be were they are if you swapped Kopitar for Price. When he exploded out of the gate as a 19 year old I was less than surprised, but I have been disappointed waiting for him to reach that next level. He seems to be struggling with that leap. With his strength and defensive awareness increasing yearly and the ridiculous amount of burgeoning talent on the Kings, Kopitar is marked for big things.
40. Steven Stamkos - C - TB
Stamkos has been a disappointment during his rookie year and I really can’t make a strong case outside of tremendous upside potential to justify his ranking. The same argument can be made for Kyle Turris who plummeted off the chart this month. But giving up on first round picks like Stamkos is not a wise move, erring on the side of caution is the right play. The hype around Stamkos placed him in Crosby’s league but I don’t see it. I know he is going to be productive as a pro, but I am not convinced he is guaranteed to be more productive than those ranked 40 and below. Melrose has been adamant that he is not physically strong enough for the NHL, and while I tend to agree this year, two years from now I will most likely be singing a different tune.
39. Brian Campbell – D – CHI
Campbell chased the money out of San Jose this summer and probably cost himself about 15 spots on this list. Chicago is a team on the rise and Campbell will reap the benefits of a maturing Toews and Kane, but I have not been impressed so far this season. The quicker the Chicago wonder twins mature, the faster Campbell ascends up the chart.
38. Andrei Markov – D- MTL
Markov is an elite defenceman and his stock has taken a hit because of the struggling Canadiens PP. For the second year in a row he has exploded out of the gate and has only recently begun to return to his early season form. Markov is a stud, but is just a rung below the truly elite defensemen.
37. Olli Jokinen – C – PHX
The underrated Superstar. Jokinen is a power center in the mold of Mats Sundin and just turned 30 on the weekend. He is just entering his prime and with an emerging cast of superstars in Phoenix, Jokinen is a good bet to be a PPG player for the next 3-4 years with a high end in the 90s. The only reason he is this high is because of the youthful studs below him.
36. Simon Gagne – LW – PHI
Call me cautious. I like Gagne but am wary of his history, his concussions remain a concern for me as well as his inconsistency. He can score, but I will not be fully convinced until he can remain healthy for a full season and produce consecutive PPG seasons
35. Rick Nash – LW – CBJ
Nash has been a victim of his breakout season at 20 years old. After leading the league with 41 goals as a sophomore the bar was raised too quickly for the Jackets star. Doug “I was not a good GM” Maclean lined his pockets with a huge deal and placed a terrible franchise on his 20 year old back. Now other stars have had this type of pressure at the age of 20, but they were fortunate enough to have a competent GM to surround them with the requisite talent to compete. Nash has struggled with the burden and looks to be finally turning the corner. Is it because he belives the Jackets are improving? Or does he have his eyes on UFA status in 2010? Either way, I anticipate 80+ points this year and will be disappointed with anything less.
34. Paul Stastny – C – COL
At only 23 years old with the bloodlines of a Hall of Famer Peter Stastny I can’t believe I have him ranked at 37. But the young talent in the NHL is unbelievable right now. Colorado is in a transition period with Joe Sakic struggling to stay healthy, replacing a legend is never easy and I expect the transition to take it’s toll. Once that transition takes place I look forward to Stastny proving my ranking wrong.
33. Jeff Carter – C – PHI
Jeff Carter has exploded out of the gate and has 12 points in his last 9 games. Since being rumoured to have been included in a deal to Toronto for Tomas Kaberle Carter has scored 29 goals in 42 games, a 50 goal pace. He has reinvigorated the concussion prone Simon Gagne and is banging on the door of stardom.
32. Nicklas Backstrom – C – WAS
You have to wonder if Backstrom is just a slow starter. Two seasons in a row he has struggled through October but I don’t think it is a coincidence that his 2009 production spiked with the Ovechkin explosion. The sky is the limit for this kid as long as he plays with Ovechkin, we might be looking at the best tag team since the Hart Foundation. Now if we can only get Bruce Boudreau a megaphone and a pink jacket.
31. Jonathon Toews – C – CHI
I love this kid, he is going to be a superstar. My question is will he be a fantasy superstar? After watching him this last week my answer is yes. I am old enough to have seen Stevie Y as a rookie and the comparisons are legit. If you own him in a fantasy pool, hold on to him tighter than Plaxico Burress held onto his gun.
In regards to Burress, who A. wears sweat pants to a club and B. thinks a sweat pant elastic waistband can hold a gun? If Sean Avery played in the NFL do you really think what he said would have registered? Sean I am disgusted with what you said, can I pencil you in next week for a meeting? I have three murders, two assaults, a domestic abuse, three steroid suspensions and a guy who drove his car onto a football field trying to run down a kid. On second thought, don't worry about it Sean, just don't do it again.
30. Zach Parise – LW – NJD
I am waiting for somebody to call me out and say I traded Iginla for Parise, but the deal included a first round pick for me as well and could have potentially landed me another star. Unfortunatley it landed me Drew Stafford. I guess my crystal ball was broken during that draft. All that being said, I think we are much closer to the reality of that being a straight up deal than one might think. Parise is a horse and at 24 is still years away from his prime.
29. Marc Andre Fleury – G – PIT
I am not a fan of Fleury, but I am a fan of the team he plays for. Whoever plays goal for the Pens is going to retain a high value, when you are the former number one pick overall it will just increase that value. Fleury struggled to meet the lofty expectations of the number one pick overall and has shown glimpses of greatness (see game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals), but evertime you think he is about to take the next step something occurs to prevent it. Fleury had a ton of momentum going into this season and an injury has allowed Sabourin to step in and quietly shine. I am still not sold on Fleury, but teams make goalies, and Fleury plays on a great one.
28. Ryan Whitney - D - PIT
30. Zach Parise – LW – NJD
I am waiting for somebody to call me out and say I traded Iginla for Parise, but the deal included a first round pick for me as well and could have potentially landed me another star. Unfortunatley it landed me Drew Stafford. I guess my crystal ball was broken during that draft. All that being said, I think we are much closer to the reality of that being a straight up deal than one might think. Parise is a horse and at 24 is still years away from his prime.
29. Marc Andre Fleury – G – PIT
I am not a fan of Fleury, but I am a fan of the team he plays for. Whoever plays goal for the Pens is going to retain a high value, when you are the former number one pick overall it will just increase that value. Fleury struggled to meet the lofty expectations of the number one pick overall and has shown glimpses of greatness (see game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals), but evertime you think he is about to take the next step something occurs to prevent it. Fleury had a ton of momentum going into this season and an injury has allowed Sabourin to step in and quietly shine. I am still not sold on Fleury, but teams make goalies, and Fleury plays on a great one.
28. Ryan Whitney - D - PIT
See 29. Whitney looks to be the future PP QB of the Pens, that is a very good thing. 59 points as a 24 year old, another good thing, 20 pt regression at 25, not a good thing. With Gonchar out for another 3 months, Whitney has an opportunity to quell any doubts about his future fantasy impact. The second half will go along way to help in forcasting his future.
27. Eric Staal – C – CAR
What happened to that guy? Staal has all the tools to be a dominant power center but his 2 season regression and sloth like start this season have given me cause for concern. There aren’t many forwards out there with a 100 pt season on their resume, so spare me the talk of a fluke year. Maybe 2006 was an abberation and he is an 85 pt players, I am not closing that chapter on his career quite yet.
26. Pavel Datysuk – C – DET
Thirty years old, 90 point seasons yearly, yet dropping on this list? There is something unsexy (is that a word?) about a 30 year old fantasy player for some reason. It boggles the mind and here I am committing the sin that I accuse the rest of the fantasy world of. Entering his prime I want to hold true to my stance but I look over the top 25 and do not see one player who I would trade for Datysuk. At least he has his All ugly team card to get over the disappointment.
OT: The Pascal Leclaire All-Stars (ie. All ugly team) so far
Pascal Leclaire, Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datysuk. I am always taking nominations - www.fantasysensehockey@yahoo.ca
27. Eric Staal – C – CAR
What happened to that guy? Staal has all the tools to be a dominant power center but his 2 season regression and sloth like start this season have given me cause for concern. There aren’t many forwards out there with a 100 pt season on their resume, so spare me the talk of a fluke year. Maybe 2006 was an abberation and he is an 85 pt players, I am not closing that chapter on his career quite yet.
26. Pavel Datysuk – C – DET
Thirty years old, 90 point seasons yearly, yet dropping on this list? There is something unsexy (is that a word?) about a 30 year old fantasy player for some reason. It boggles the mind and here I am committing the sin that I accuse the rest of the fantasy world of. Entering his prime I want to hold true to my stance but I look over the top 25 and do not see one player who I would trade for Datysuk. At least he has his All ugly team card to get over the disappointment.
OT: The Pascal Leclaire All-Stars (ie. All ugly team) so far
Pascal Leclaire, Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datysuk. I am always taking nominations - www.fantasysensehockey@yahoo.ca
